The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%San José State SpartansSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SJSU by 7.7market SJSU by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.7 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San José State Spartans at 67% to win, with the market at SJSU by 10.
SJSU has the advantage in rushing: SJSU rushing ranks #81, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into SJSU's #74.
SJSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SJSU third-down conversion ranks #40, NEV defends it at #55; the other way NEV #126 into SJSU's #48.
Counterpoint: big plays favours NEV. NEV pass explosiveness ranks #122, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into NEV's #2. The pick still lands on SJSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NEV has the better last five games by 13.0 points a game (NEV -6.4, SJSU -19.4).
Home field is with NEV, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SJSU by 7.7 against a market SJSU by 10: 2.3 points of daylight in NEV's favour. The model's total is 46.7 against a line of 49.5: 2.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SJSU by 7.7 · market SJSU by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
NEV passing ranks #134, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into NEV's #44.
Rushing game
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU rushing ranks #81, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into SJSU's #74.
Third down & red zone
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU third-down conversion ranks #40, NEV defends it at #55; the other way NEV #126 into SJSU's #48.
Big plays
NEV
Slight advantage
NEV pass explosiveness ranks #122, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into NEV's #2.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #1, NEV defends it at #100; the other way NEV #72 into SJSU's #109.
Ball security
=
Even
NEV turnovers / game ranks #133, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into NEV's #70.
Form (last 5)
NEV
Clear advantage
NEV −6.4 per game over the last five, SJSU −19.4.
Market
SJSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has SJSU by 10; the model says SJSU by 7.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SJSU by 10 · model SJSU by 7.7
Mkt SJSU 10
Model SJSU 7.7
← SJSU by 28tieNEV by 28 →
1.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 46.7
Mkt 49.5
Model 46.7
24 pts6096 pts
7.5% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 46.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
