The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%LSU TigersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LSU by 14.0market LSU by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.7 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has LSU Tigers at 79% to win, with the market at LSU by 4.
LSU has the advantage in passing: LSU passing ranks #70, ARK defends it at #133; the other way ARK #35 into LSU's #26.
Rest: ARK has 7 more days since its last game (LSU 7d, ARK 14d).
Home field is with LSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it LSU by 14.0 against a market LSU by 4: 10.0 points of daylight in LSU's favour. The model's total is 58.7 against a line of 58.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LSU by 14.0 · market LSU by 4
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
LSU
Clear advantage
LSU passing ranks #70, ARK defends it at #133; the other way ARK #35 into LSU's #26.
Rushing game
=
Even
ARK rushing ranks #6, LSU defends it at #22; the other way LSU #118 into ARK's #129.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #103, ARK defends it at #119; the other way ARK #31 into LSU's #32.
Big plays
ARK
Slight advantage
ARK rush explosiveness ranks #38, LSU defends it at #44; the other way LSU #112 into ARK's #73.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
LSU sack rate ranks #83, ARK defends it at #84; the other way ARK #88 into LSU's #77.
Ball security
LSU
Clear advantage
LSU turnovers / game ranks #43, ARK defends it at #122; the other way ARK #114 into LSU's #32.
Form (last 5)
LSU
Slight advantage
LSU −2.8 per game over the last five, ARK −8.4.
Market
LSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has LSU by 4; the model says LSU by 14.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LSU by 4 · model LSU by 14.0
Mkt LSU 4
Model LSU 14.0
← ARK by 28tieLSU by 28 →
17.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 58.7
Mkt 58.5
Model 58.7
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
