The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Notre Dame Fighting IrishSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 7.8market ND by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.9 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 67% to win, with the market at ND by 12.5.
ND has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ND points / scoring opportunity ranks #6, PITT defends it at #83; the other way PITT #73 into ND's #6.
ND has the advantage in rushing: ND rushing ranks #11, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into ND's #36.
Rest: PITT has 7 more days since its last game (PITT 14d, ND 7d).
Form: ND has the better last five games by 39.6 points a game (PITT -6.0, ND +33.6).
Home field is with PITT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 7.8 against a market ND by 12.5: 4.7 points of daylight in PITT's favour. The model's total is 57.9 against a line of 55.5: 2.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 7.8 · market ND by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ND
Slight advantage
ND passing ranks #11, PITT defends it at #17; the other way PITT #46 into ND's #6.
Rushing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND rushing ranks #11, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into ND's #36.
Third down & red zone
ND
Clear advantage
ND points / scoring opportunity ranks #6, PITT defends it at #83; the other way PITT #73 into ND's #6.
Big plays
ND
Slight advantage
ND rush explosiveness ranks #8, PITT defends it at #63; the other way PITT #55 into ND's #23.
Pass protection & rush
ND
Clear advantage
ND sack rate ranks #14, PITT defends it at #53; the other way PITT #116 into ND's #16.
Ball security
ND
Clear advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #9, PITT defends it at #34; the other way PITT #124 into ND's #12.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
PITT −6.0 per game over the last five, ND +33.6.
Market
ND
Clear advantage
Consensus has ND by 12.5; the model says ND by 7.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 12.5 · model ND by 7.8
Mkt ND 12.5
Model ND 7.8
← ND by 28tiePITT by 28 →
4.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 57.9
Mkt 55.5
Model 57.9
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 57.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
