The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
84%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 17.1market ORE by 26.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.5 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 84% to win, with the market at ORE by 26.5.
ORE has the advantage in rushing: ORE rushing ranks #19, MINN defends it at #100; the other way MINN #112 into ORE's #37.
ORE has the advantage in passing: ORE passing ranks #16, MINN defends it at #63; the other way MINN #65 into ORE's #27.
Rest: MINN has 7 more days since its last game (ORE 6d, MINN 13d).
Form: ORE has the better last five games by 9.8 points a game (ORE +6.6, MINN -3.2).
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 17.1 against a market ORE by 26.5: 9.4 points of daylight in MINN's favour. The model's total is 42.5 against a line of 46.5: 4.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 17.1 · market ORE by 26.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE passing ranks #16, MINN defends it at #63; the other way MINN #65 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rushing ranks #19, MINN defends it at #100; the other way MINN #112 into ORE's #37.
Third down & red zone
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE third-down conversion ranks #18, MINN defends it at #85; the other way MINN #66 into ORE's #53.
Big plays
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, MINN defends it at #90; the other way MINN #90 into ORE's #75.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
MINN sack rate ranks #70, ORE defends it at #63; the other way ORE #32 into MINN's #2.
Ball security
=
Even
MINN turnovers / game ranks #5, ORE defends it at #50; the other way ORE #34 into MINN's #77.
Form (last 5)
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE +6.6 per game over the last five, MINN −3.2.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 26.5; the model says ORE by 17.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 26.5 · model ORE by 17.1
Mkt ORE 26.5
Model ORE 17.1
← MINN by 28tieORE by 28 →
11.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 42.5
Mkt 46.5
Model 42.5
24 pts6096 pts
8.3% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 42.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
