The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
82%Oregon State BeaversStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORST by 15.5market ORST by 21
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.2 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon State Beavers at 82% to win, with the market at ORST by 21.
ORST has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ORST third-down conversion ranks #102, SHSU defends it at #119; the other way SHSU #135 into ORST's #16.
ORST has the advantage in passing: ORST passing ranks #122, SHSU defends it at #117; the other way SHSU #131 into ORST's #95.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours SHSU. SHSU turnovers / game ranks #82, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into SHSU's #40. The pick still lands on ORST because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ORST has the better last five games by 15.6 points a game (ORST -2.0, SHSU -17.6).
Home field is with ORST, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORST by 15.5 against a market ORST by 21: 5.5 points of daylight in SHSU's favour. The model's total is 52.2 against a line of 52.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORST by 15.5 · market ORST by 21
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ORST
Slight advantage
ORST passing ranks #122, SHSU defends it at #117; the other way SHSU #131 into ORST's #95.
Rushing game
=
Even
SHSU rushing ranks #99, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into SHSU's #83.
Third down & red zone
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST third-down conversion ranks #102, SHSU defends it at #119; the other way SHSU #135 into ORST's #16.
Big plays
SHSU
Clear advantage
SHSU rush explosiveness ranks #19, ORST defends it at #69; the other way ORST #134 into SHSU's #67.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ORST sack rate ranks #73, SHSU defends it at #86; the other way SHSU #118 into ORST's #123.
Ball security
SHSU
Clear advantage
SHSU turnovers / game ranks #82, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into SHSU's #40.
Form (last 5)
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST −2.0 per game over the last five, SHSU −17.6.
Market
ORST
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORST by 21; the model says ORST by 15.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORST by 21 · model ORST by 15.5
Mkt ORST 21
Model ORST 15.5
← SHSU by 28tieORST by 28 →
6.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 21, a number 3.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 52.2
Mkt 52.5
Model 52.2
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
