The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Utah State AggiesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
USU by 12.7market USU by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.1 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Utah State Aggies at 77% to win, with the market at USU by 10.
USU has the advantage in rushing: USU rushing ranks #38, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into USU's #115.
USU has the advantage in passing: USU passing ranks #51, NEV defends it at #44; the other way NEV #134 into USU's #60.
Form: USU has the better last five games by 12.6 points a game (USU +6.2, NEV -6.4).
Home field is with USU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it USU by 12.7 against a market USU by 10: 2.7 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 50.1 against a line of 52.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model USU by 12.7 · market USU by 10
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USU
Clear advantage
USU passing ranks #51, NEV defends it at #44; the other way NEV #134 into USU's #60.
Rushing game
USU
Clear advantage
USU rushing ranks #38, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into USU's #115.
Third down & red zone
USU
Slight advantage
USU points / scoring opportunity ranks #16, NEV defends it at #112; the other way NEV #132 into USU's #77.
Big plays
USU
Slight advantage
USU pass explosiveness ranks #67, NEV defends it at #2; the other way NEV #122 into USU's #24.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NEV sack rate ranks #72, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into NEV's #100.
Ball security
USU
Clear advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, NEV defends it at #70; the other way NEV #133 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
USU
Clear advantage
USU +6.2 per game over the last five, NEV −6.4.
Market
USU
Clear advantage
Consensus has USU by 10; the model says USU by 12.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USU by 10 · model USU by 12.7
Mkt USU 10
Model USU 12.7
← NEV by 28tieUSU by 28 →
1.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 50.1
Mkt 52.5
Model 50.1
24 pts6096 pts
6.0% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 50.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
