The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%San José State SpartansStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SJSU by 11.6market SJSU by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
69.9 pointsmarket 67.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San José State Spartans at 75% to win, with the market at SJSU by 6.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours AFA. AFA turnovers / game ranks #27, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into AFA's #115. The pick still lands on SJSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: AFA has the better last five games by 19.6 points a game (SJSU -19.4, AFA +0.2).
Home field is with SJSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SJSU by 11.6 against a market SJSU by 6: 5.6 points of daylight in SJSU's favour. The model's total is 69.9 against a line of 67.5: 2.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SJSU by 11.6 · market SJSU by 6
ⓘMost of these areas favor AFA, but the model still picks SJSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA passing ranks #6, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into AFA's #135.
Rushing game
=
Even
AFA rushing ranks #17, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #81 into AFA's #135.
Third down & red zone
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA points / scoring opportunity ranks #12, SJSU defends it at #107; the other way SJSU #129 into AFA's #121.
Big plays
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA pass explosiveness ranks #2, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into AFA's #32.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #1, AFA defends it at #111; the other way AFA #104 into SJSU's #109.
Ball security
AFA
Clear advantage
AFA turnovers / game ranks #27, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into AFA's #115.
Form (last 5)
AFA
Clear advantage
SJSU −19.4 per game over the last five, AFA +0.2.
Market
SJSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has SJSU by 6; the model says SJSU by 11.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SJSU by 6 · model SJSU by 11.6
Mkt SJSU 6
Model SJSU 11.6
← AFA by 28tieSJSU by 28 →
10.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 67.5 · model 69.9
Mkt 67.5
Model 69.9
24 pts6096 pts
3.4% of FBS games finish between 67.5 and 69.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
