The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
87%Notre Dame Fighting IrishStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 19.4market ND by 30.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.4 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 87% to win, with the market at ND by 30.5.
ND has the advantage in passing: ND passing ranks #11, NAVY defends it at #108; the other way NAVY #8 into ND's #6.
ND has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ND points / scoring opportunity ranks #6, NAVY defends it at #115; the other way NAVY #28 into ND's #6.
Form: ND has the better last five games by 34.0 points a game (ND +33.6, NAVY -0.4).
Home field is with ND, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 19.4 against a market ND by 30.5: 11.1 points of daylight in NAVY's favour. The model's total is 48.4 against a line of 54.5: 6.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 19.4 · market ND by 30.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND passing ranks #11, NAVY defends it at #108; the other way NAVY #8 into ND's #6.
Rushing game
=
Even
ND rushing ranks #11, NAVY defends it at #59; the other way NAVY #8 into ND's #36.
Third down & red zone
ND
Clear advantage
ND points / scoring opportunity ranks #6, NAVY defends it at #115; the other way NAVY #28 into ND's #6.
Big plays
ND
Slight advantage
ND rush explosiveness ranks #8, NAVY defends it at #102; the other way NAVY #32 into ND's #23.
Pass protection & rush
ND
Slight advantage
ND sack rate ranks #14, NAVY defends it at #40; the other way NAVY #20 into ND's #16.
Ball security
ND
Clear advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #9, NAVY defends it at #86; the other way NAVY #41 into ND's #12.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
ND +33.6 per game over the last five, NAVY −0.4.
Market
ND
Clear advantage
Consensus has ND by 30.5; the model says ND by 19.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 30.5 · model ND by 19.4
Mkt ND 30.5
Model ND 19.4
← NAVY by 28tieND by 28 →
13.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 48.4
Mkt 54.5
Model 48.4
24 pts6096 pts
13.1% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 48.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
