The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%BYU CougarsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BYU by 0.9market TTU by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.1 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has BYU Cougars at 52% to win, with the market at TTU by 13.5.
Counterpoint: big plays favours TTU. TTU rush explosiveness ranks #14, BYU defends it at #81; the other way BYU #71 into TTU's #1. The pick still lands on BYU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: BYU has 7 more days since its last game (TTU 7d, BYU 14d).
Form: TTU has the better last five games by 14.8 points a game (TTU +22.8, BYU +8.0).
Home field is with TTU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BYU by 0.9 against a market TTU by 13.5: 14.4 points of daylight in BYU's favour. The model's total is 57.1 against a line of 50.5: 6.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BYU by 0.9 · market TTU by 13.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor TTU, but the model still picks BYU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU passing ranks #39, BYU defends it at #45; the other way BYU #63 into TTU's #1.
Rushing game
TTU
Slight advantage
TTU rushing ranks #41, BYU defends it at #54; the other way BYU #25 into TTU's #1.
Third down & red zone
TTU
Slight advantage
TTU third-down conversion ranks #12, BYU defends it at #20; the other way BYU #49 into TTU's #7.
Big plays
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rush explosiveness ranks #14, BYU defends it at #81; the other way BYU #71 into TTU's #1.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
BYU sack rate ranks #6, TTU defends it at #56; the other way TTU #39 into BYU's #68.
Ball security
=
Even
BYU turnovers / game ranks #48, TTU defends it at #2; the other way TTU #72 into BYU's #21.
Form (last 5)
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU +22.8 per game over the last five, BYU +8.0.
Market
TTU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TTU by 13.5; the model says BYU by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 13.5 · model BYU by 0.9
Mkt TTU 13.5
Model BYU 0.9
← BYU by 28tieTTU by 28 →
24.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 57.1
Mkt 50.5
Model 57.1
24 pts6096 pts
16.6% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 57.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
