The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 39.0market OSU by 29.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.4 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 98% to win, with the market at OSU by 29.5.
OSU has the advantage in passing: OSU passing ranks #2, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into OSU's #7.
OSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, PUR defends it at #113; the other way PUR #86 into OSU's #10.
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 39.4 points a game (PUR -24.2, OSU +15.2).
Home field is with PUR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 39.0 against a market OSU by 29.5: 9.5 points of daylight in OSU's favour. The model's total is 42.4 against a line of 49.5: 7.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 39.0 · market OSU by 29.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU passing ranks #2, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into OSU's #7.
Rushing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU rushing ranks #72, PUR defends it at #111; the other way PUR #57 into OSU's #2.
Third down & red zone
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, PUR defends it at #113; the other way PUR #86 into OSU's #10.
Big plays
=
Even
OSU pass explosiveness ranks #116, PUR defends it at #101; the other way PUR #117 into OSU's #1.
Pass protection & rush
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU sack rate ranks #27, PUR defends it at #36; the other way PUR #28 into OSU's #5.
Ball security
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU turnovers / game ranks #8, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into OSU's #101.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
PUR −24.2 per game over the last five, OSU +15.2.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 29.5; the model says OSU by 39.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 29.5 · model OSU by 39.0
Mkt OSU 29.5
Model OSU 39.0
← OSU by 28tiePUR by 28 →
2.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 42.4
Mkt 49.5
Model 42.4
24 pts6096 pts
15.8% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 42.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
