The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HAW by 3.7market SJSU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.5 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at 58% to win, with the market at SJSU by 2.5.
HAW has the advantage in passing: HAW passing ranks #43, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into HAW's #66.
HAW has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: HAW points / scoring opportunity ranks #60, SJSU defends it at #107; the other way SJSU #129 into HAW's #39.
Counterpoint: rushing favours SJSU. SJSU rushing ranks #81, HAW defends it at #82; the other way HAW #131 into SJSU's #74. The pick still lands on HAW because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: HAW has the better last five games by 23.6 points a game (SJSU -19.4, HAW +4.2).
Home field is with SJSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HAW by 3.7 against a market SJSU by 2.5: 6.2 points of daylight in HAW's favour. The model's total is 52.5 against a line of 55.5: 3.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HAW by 3.7 · market SJSU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW passing ranks #43, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into HAW's #66.
Rushing game
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU rushing ranks #81, HAW defends it at #82; the other way HAW #131 into SJSU's #74.
Third down & red zone
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW points / scoring opportunity ranks #60, SJSU defends it at #107; the other way SJSU #129 into HAW's #39.
Big plays
=
Even
HAW pass explosiveness ranks #61, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into HAW's #78.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
HAW sack rate ranks #56, SJSU defends it at #109; the other way SJSU #1 into HAW's #32.
Ball security
HAW
Slight advantage
HAW turnovers / game ranks #77, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into HAW's #89.
Form (last 5)
HAW
Clear advantage
SJSU −19.4 per game over the last five, HAW +4.2.
Market
SJSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has SJSU by 2.5; the model says HAW by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SJSU by 2.5 · model HAW by 3.7
Mkt SJSU 2.5
Model HAW 3.7
← HAW by 28tieSJSU by 28 →
10.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 52.5
Mkt 55.5
Model 52.5
24 pts6096 pts
6.9% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 52.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
