The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
52%North Texas Mean GreenLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNT by 0.9market UNT by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
69.7 pointsmarket 68.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Texas Mean Green at 52% to win, with the market at UNT by 6.5.
UNT has the advantage in passing: UNT passing ranks #14, NAVY defends it at #108; the other way NAVY #8 into UNT's #29.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours NAVY. NAVY sack rate ranks #20, UNT defends it at #96; the other way UNT #25 into NAVY's #40. The pick still lands on UNT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UNT has the better last five games by 15.8 points a game (UNT +15.4, NAVY -0.4).
Home field is with UNT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UNT by 0.9 against a market UNT by 6.5: 5.6 points of daylight in NAVY's favour. The model's total is 69.7 against a line of 68.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNT by 0.9 · market UNT by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT passing ranks #14, NAVY defends it at #108; the other way NAVY #8 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
=
Even
NAVY rushing ranks #8, UNT defends it at #88; the other way UNT #3 into NAVY's #59.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
NAVY third-down conversion ranks #4, UNT defends it at #105; the other way UNT #24 into NAVY's #66.
Big plays
NAVY
Slight advantage
NAVY pass explosiveness ranks #3, UNT defends it at #112; the other way UNT #63 into NAVY's #103.
Pass protection & rush
NAVY
Clear advantage
NAVY sack rate ranks #20, UNT defends it at #96; the other way UNT #25 into NAVY's #40.
Ball security
UNT
Slight advantage
UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, NAVY defends it at #86; the other way NAVY #41 into UNT's #6.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT +15.4 per game over the last five, NAVY −0.4.
Market
UNT
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNT by 6.5; the model says UNT by 0.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 6.5 · model UNT by 0.9
Mkt UNT 6.5
Model UNT 0.9
← NAVY by 28tieUNT by 28 →
12.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 68.5 · model 69.7
Mkt 68.5
Model 69.7
24 pts6096 pts
2.0% of FBS games finish between 68.5 and 69.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
