The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
71%Army Black KnightsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ARMY by 9.5market ARMY by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.8 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Army Black Knights at 71% to win, with the market at ARMY by 1.5.
ARMY has the advantage in big plays: ARMY rush explosiveness ranks #78, AFA defends it at #133; the other way AFA #63 into ARMY's #26.
ARMY has the advantage in passing: ARMY passing ranks #28, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #6 into ARMY's #78.
Home field is with AFA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ARMY by 9.5 against a market ARMY by 1.5: 8.0 points of daylight in ARMY's favour. The model's total is 56.8 against a line of 48.5: 8.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ARMY by 9.5 · market ARMY by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY passing ranks #28, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #6 into ARMY's #78.
Rushing game
=
Even
ARMY rushing ranks #69, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #17 into ARMY's #75.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
AFA third-down conversion ranks #7, ARMY defends it at #121; the other way ARMY #52 into AFA's #134.
Big plays
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY rush explosiveness ranks #78, AFA defends it at #133; the other way AFA #63 into ARMY's #26.
Pass protection & rush
ARMY
Clear advantage
ARMY sack rate ranks #17, AFA defends it at #111; the other way AFA #104 into ARMY's #132.
Ball security
ARMY
Slight advantage
ARMY turnovers / game ranks #10, AFA defends it at #115; the other way AFA #27 into ARMY's #74.
Form (last 5)
ARMY
Slight advantage
AFA +0.2 per game over the last five, ARMY +5.4.
Market
ARMY
Slight advantage
Consensus has ARMY by 1.5; the model says ARMY by 9.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ARMY by 1.5 · model ARMY by 9.5
Mkt ARMY 1.5
Model ARMY 9.5
← ARMY by 28tieAFA by 28 →
14.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 56.8
Mkt 48.5
Model 56.8
24 pts6096 pts
18.2% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 56.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
