The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
84%Houston CougarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 16.8market HOU by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.6 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Cougars at 84% to win, with the market at HOU by 13.5.
HOU has the advantage in passing: HOU passing ranks #42, WVU defends it at #113; the other way WVU #113 into HOU's #54.
HOU has the advantage in big plays: HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, WVU defends it at #124; the other way WVU #24 into HOU's #52.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (HOU +0.0, WVU -8.0).
Home field is with HOU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 16.8 against a market HOU by 13.5: 3.3 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 47.6 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 16.8 · market HOU by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #42, WVU defends it at #113; the other way WVU #113 into HOU's #54.
Rushing game
WVU
Slight advantage
WVU rushing ranks #126, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into WVU's #17.
Third down & red zone
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU third-down conversion ranks #57, WVU defends it at #60; the other way WVU #133 into HOU's #41.
Big plays
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, WVU defends it at #124; the other way WVU #24 into HOU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #30, WVU defends it at #75; the other way WVU #117 into HOU's #50.
Ball security
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #39, WVU defends it at #27; the other way WVU #100 into HOU's #51.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, WVU −8.0.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 13.5; the model says HOU by 16.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 13.5 · model HOU by 16.8
Mkt HOU 13.5
Model HOU 16.8
← WVU by 28tieHOU by 28 →
4.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 47.6
Mkt 48.5
Model 47.6
24 pts6096 pts
3.2% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 47.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
