The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
94%Michigan WolverinesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MICH by 26.6market MICH by 21
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.2 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Michigan Wolverines at 94% to win, with the market at MICH by 21.
MICH has the advantage in rushing: MICH rushing ranks #15, PUR defends it at #111; the other way PUR #57 into MICH's #45.
MICH has the advantage in passing: MICH passing ranks #95, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into MICH's #55.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours PUR. PUR sack rate ranks #28, MICH defends it at #51; the other way MICH #76 into PUR's #36. The pick still lands on MICH because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MICH has the better last five games by 24.2 points a game (MICH +0.0, PUR -24.2).
Home field is with MICH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MICH by 26.6 against a market MICH by 21: 5.6 points of daylight in MICH's favour. The model's total is 41.2 against a line of 48.5: 7.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MICH by 26.6 · market MICH by 21
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH passing ranks #95, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into MICH's #55.
Rushing game
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH rushing ranks #15, PUR defends it at #111; the other way PUR #57 into MICH's #45.
Third down & red zone
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, PUR defends it at #113; the other way PUR #86 into MICH's #52.
Big plays
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH pass explosiveness ranks #106, PUR defends it at #101; the other way PUR #117 into MICH's #3.
Pass protection & rush
PUR
Clear advantage
PUR sack rate ranks #28, MICH defends it at #51; the other way MICH #76 into PUR's #36.
Ball security
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH turnovers / game ranks #75, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into MICH's #42.
Form (last 5)
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH 0.0 per game over the last five, PUR −24.2.
Market
MICH
Clear advantage
Consensus has MICH by 21; the model says MICH by 26.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MICH by 21 · model MICH by 26.6
Mkt MICH 21
Model MICH 26.6
← PUR by 28tieMICH by 28 →
5.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 21, a number 3.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 41.2
Mkt 48.5
Model 41.2
24 pts6096 pts
15.3% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 41.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
