The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Georgia BulldogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UGA by 13.6market UGA by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.5 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Bulldogs at 79% to win, with the market at UGA by 7.
UGA has the advantage in passing: UGA passing ranks #38, FLA defends it at #93; the other way FLA #124 into UGA's #73.
UGA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UGA third-down conversion ranks #35, FLA defends it at #116; the other way FLA #113 into UGA's #36.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours FLA. FLA sack rate ranks #65, UGA defends it at #117; the other way UGA #41 into FLA's #48. The pick still lands on UGA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UGA has the better last five games by 25.2 points a game (FLA -9.2, UGA +16.0).
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it UGA by 13.6 against a market UGA by 7: 6.6 points of daylight in UGA's favour. The model's total is 47.5 against a line of 50.5: 3.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UGA by 13.6 · market UGA by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA passing ranks #38, FLA defends it at #93; the other way FLA #124 into UGA's #73.
Rushing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rushing ranks #36, FLA defends it at #60; the other way FLA #54 into UGA's #10.
Third down & red zone
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA third-down conversion ranks #35, FLA defends it at #116; the other way FLA #113 into UGA's #36.
Big plays
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rush explosiveness ranks #85, FLA defends it at #61; the other way FLA #127 into UGA's #2.
Pass protection & rush
FLA
Slight advantage
FLA sack rate ranks #65, UGA defends it at #117; the other way UGA #41 into FLA's #48.
Ball security
=
Even
UGA turnovers / game ranks #22, FLA defends it at #48; the other way FLA #97 into UGA's #108.
Form (last 5)
UGA
Clear advantage
FLA −9.2 per game over the last five, UGA +16.0.
Market
UGA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UGA by 7; the model says UGA by 13.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UGA by 7 · model UGA by 13.6
Mkt UGA 7
Model UGA 13.6
← UGA by 28tieFLA by 28 →
5.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 47.5
Mkt 50.5
Model 47.5
24 pts6096 pts
7.0% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 47.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
