The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Memphis TigersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MEM by 14.4market MEM by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.8 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Memphis Tigers at 80% to win, with the market at MEM by 14.
MEM has the advantage in rushing: MEM rushing ranks #4, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into MEM's #39.
MEM has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MEM third-down conversion ranks #47, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into MEM's #74.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours RICE. RICE sack rate ranks #122, MEM defends it at #103; the other way MEM #102 into RICE's #42. The pick still lands on MEM because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: MEM has the better last five games by 21.6 points a game (RICE -25.8, MEM -4.2).
Home field is with RICE, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MEM by 14.4 against a market MEM by 14: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 52.8 against a line of 48.5: 4.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MEM by 14.4 · market MEM by 14
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MEM
Slight advantage
MEM passing ranks #75, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into MEM's #109.
Rushing game
MEM
Clear advantage
MEM rushing ranks #4, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into MEM's #39.
Third down & red zone
MEM
Clear advantage
MEM third-down conversion ranks #47, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into MEM's #74.
Big plays
MEM
Slight advantage
MEM rush explosiveness ranks #7, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #50 into MEM's #85.
Pass protection & rush
RICE
Slight advantage
RICE sack rate ranks #122, MEM defends it at #103; the other way MEM #102 into RICE's #42.
Ball security
MEM
Clear advantage
MEM turnovers / game ranks #18, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #12 into MEM's #41.
Form (last 5)
MEM
Clear advantage
RICE −25.8 per game over the last five, MEM −4.2.
Market
MEM
Clear advantage
Consensus has MEM by 14; the model says MEM by 14.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MEM by 14 · model MEM by 14.4
Mkt MEM 14
Model MEM 14.4
← MEM by 28tieRICE by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 52.8
Mkt 48.5
Model 52.8
24 pts6096 pts
9.8% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 52.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
