The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
70%Tulane Green WaveSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TULN by 8.9market TULN by 6
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
58.1 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tulane Green Wave at 70% to win, with the market at TULN by 6.
TULN has the advantage in passing: TULN passing ranks #22, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into TULN's #67.
TULN has the advantage in big plays: TULN pass explosiveness ranks #75, UTSA defends it at #130; the other way UTSA #95 into TULN's #12.
Home field is with UTSA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TULN by 8.9 against a market TULN by 6: 2.9 points of daylight in TULN's favour. The model's total is 58.1 against a line of 54.5: 3.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TULN by 8.9 · market TULN by 6
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN passing ranks #22, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into TULN's #67.
Rushing game
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA rushing ranks #27, TULN defends it at #62; the other way TULN #70 into UTSA's #79.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TULN points / scoring opportunity ranks #53, UTSA defends it at #116; the other way UTSA #27 into TULN's #65.
Big plays
TULN
Slight advantage
TULN pass explosiveness ranks #75, UTSA defends it at #130; the other way UTSA #95 into TULN's #12.
Pass protection & rush
TULN
Clear advantage
TULN sack rate ranks #8, UTSA defends it at #80; the other way UTSA #23 into TULN's #29.
Ball security
=
Even
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, TULN defends it at #16; the other way TULN #62 into UTSA's #57.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA +11.4 per game over the last five, TULN +8.8.
Market
TULN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TULN by 6; the model says TULN by 8.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TULN by 6 · model TULN by 8.9
Mkt TULN 6
Model TULN 8.9
← TULN by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
4.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 6, a number 2.8% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 58.1
Mkt 54.5
Model 58.1
24 pts6096 pts
9.9% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 58.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
