Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAlamodomeStadium scoring factor 124 (2nd of 134, 100 = league average) · 66.5 points a game in 20 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 60.2 points vs 53.7 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
advanced stats (garbage time excluded) and play-by-play · 2025 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2025 season · ranks of 135
ranks betterranks worseStronger27+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 135 (#1 = best)
TULN offensevsUTSA defense
TULN offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · UTSA defense in 3
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 59 places
+0.34
#22Stronger
+0.19
#81
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#70slight
+0.08
#79
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#44
35%
slight#29
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 63 places
3.88
#53Stronger
4.20
#116
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
12.5%
#21
18.5%
slight#18
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.21
#62
1.38
slight#57
UTSA offensevsTULN defense
UTSA offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · TULN defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · points added per playPoints added per pass play; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.24
#47slight
+0.17
#67
Rushing · points added per playPoints added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.17
#27Stronger
+0.05
#62
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#71
40%
slight#70
Finishing drives · points per opportunityPoints per drive reaching the opponent's 40; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 38 places
4.23
#27Stronger
3.65
#65
Havoc · faced vs createdTackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups per play: faced by the offense, created by the defense.
16.0%
#85
16.5%
Stronger#52
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.92
#20
1.79
slight#16
Every measure, ranked
29 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 135 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
TULN offenseUTSA defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.favors TULN
+0.34#22▼
+0.19#81▼
Pass success ratefavors TULN
48%#15
40%#49
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors TULN
1.54#75
1.82#130
Yards / pass attemptfavors TULN
8.1#30
7.3#82▼
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.favors TULN
11.1%#41
11.5%#111▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors TULN
2.8%#8▼
5.4%#80
Completion %favors UTSA
62%#73
60%#42
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
3.5%#104
1.8%#103▼
UTSA offenseTULN defense
Points added / passExpected points added per pass play.
+0.24#47
+0.17#67▼
Pass success ratefavors UTSA
47%#21
46%#121
Pass explosivenessAverage points added on successful pass plays: how big the wins are.favors TULN
1.50#95
1.40#12
Yards / pass attemptfavors UTSA
7.2#68
7.7#106
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards. All plays.
9.4%#85▲
11.2%#103▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Points in the 1st half:TULN scores 60% · allows 48%UTSA scores 55% · allows 48%league 52%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
TULNUTSAsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 15.1 scored
League 38% pass
TULN10 games
Scored10.4
Allowed11.7
Pass share43%
38–49% · 290 plays
UTSA11 games
Scored17.0
Allowed13.5
Pass share42%
37–46% · 295 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 13.2 scored
League 46% pass
TULN2 games · small sample
Scored15.5
Allowed10.5
Pass share42%
69 plays · too few games for a range
UTSA0 games
None in the last 17.
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.2 scored
League 52% pass
TULN5 games
Scored8.2
Allowed16.8
Pass share56%
48–64% · 155 plays
UTSA6 games
Scored13.2
Allowed15.7
Pass share57%
52–62% · 188 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (a sack counts as a carry, as college stats score it; a few plays whose names could not be matched are missing). The range counts games, not plays. League = every tracked college team's last 17 games (138 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4–5 in 2026, 12–13 in 2025
TULNat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 5 (of 17)
6.5
5.6Q1
9.1
6.3Q2
15.5scored11.9allowedleague 14.6
1st half
3.8
4.4Q3
6.6
8.7Q4
UTSAat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 0 · trailed 6 (of 17)
8.5
5.3Q1
10.9
7.7Q2
19.4scored13.0allowedleague 14.6
1st half
6.9
7.2Q3
8.8
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 6.1 · Q2 8.5 · Q3 6.0 · Q4 7.0
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
TULNUTSA
11-3
Record
7-6
27.7
Points for / game
35.5
23.9
Points against / game
28.8
7-0 / 4-3
Home / road
5-2 / 2-4
L W W W W
Last 5
W L W W L
2025 season only (not a rolling window) · 13–14 games each.
AdvancedEfficiency and talent measures for both teams; green marks the better side.◷History
TULNUTSA
+6.3
Team rating (this season)Points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team.
+3.7
0.175
Offense points added / playPoints the offense adds per play, garbage time excluded.
0.179
0.081
Defense points added / playPoints added per play the defense allows; lower is better.
0.100
46% / 45%
Success rate (off / def)
45% / 40%
1.16 / 1.16
Explosiveness (off / def)
1.34 / 1.37
651
Talent compositeRoster talent rating from recruiting; higher = more talent.
662
15%
Returning production
84%
2025 season to date, garbage time excluded.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
TULNUTSA
2-5 · 29%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-7 · 36%
Last two seasons (2024–2025), TULN 28 games, UTSA 26. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2023Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
1TULNseriesUTSA1
Avg total points
59.5
Meetings
2
They meet only some seasons (2 of the 4 in our history).
2025TULN 26 at UTSA 48UTSA
2023UTSA 16 at TULN 29TULN
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
