The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Michigan WolverinesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MICH by 14.6market MICH by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.0 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Michigan Wolverines at 80% to win, with the market at MICH by 13.5.
MICH has the advantage in rushing: MICH rushing ranks #15, MSU defends it at #106; the other way MSU #94 into MICH's #45.
MICH has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #110 into MICH's #52.
Home field is with MSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MICH by 14.6 against a market MICH by 13.5: 1.1 points of daylight in MICH's favour. The model's total is 45.0 against a line of 47.5: 2.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MICH by 14.6 · market MICH by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH passing ranks #95, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #79 into MICH's #55.
Rushing game
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH rushing ranks #15, MSU defends it at #106; the other way MSU #94 into MICH's #45.
Third down & red zone
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, MSU defends it at #101; the other way MSU #110 into MICH's #52.
Big plays
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH pass explosiveness ranks #106, MSU defends it at #35; the other way MSU #111 into MICH's #3.
Pass protection & rush
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH sack rate ranks #76, MSU defends it at #71; the other way MSU #108 into MICH's #51.
Ball security
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH turnovers / game ranks #75, MSU defends it at #126; the other way MSU #31 into MICH's #42.
Form (last 5)
MICH
Slight advantage
MSU −5.0 per game over the last five, MICH 0.0.
Market
MICH
Clear advantage
Consensus has MICH by 13.5; the model says MICH by 14.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MICH by 13.5 · model MICH by 14.6
Mkt MICH 13.5
Model MICH 14.6
← MICH by 28tieMSU by 28 →
1.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 45.0
Mkt 47.5
Model 45.0
24 pts6096 pts
6.7% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 45.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
