The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Texas LonghornsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEX by 14.7market TEX by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
44.0 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Longhorns at 80% to win, with the market at TEX by 8.5.
TEX has the advantage in rushing: TEX rushing ranks #68, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into TEX's #20.
TEX has the advantage in passing: TEX passing ranks #49, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into TEX's #42.
Form: TEX has the better last five games by 17.8 points a game (MSST -14.4, TEX +3.4).
Home field is with MSST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TEX by 14.7 against a market TEX by 8.5: 6.2 points of daylight in TEX's favour. The model's total is 44.0 against a line of 48.5: 4.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEX by 14.7 · market TEX by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX passing ranks #49, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into TEX's #42.
Rushing game
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX rushing ranks #68, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into TEX's #20.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MSST points / scoring opportunity ranks #22, TEX defends it at #76; the other way TEX #88 into MSST's #69.
Big plays
TEX
Slight advantage
TEX pass explosiveness ranks #11, MSST defends it at #123; the other way MSST #18 into TEX's #39.
Pass protection & rush
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX sack rate ranks #57, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #128 into TEX's #26.
Ball security
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX turnovers / game ranks #6, MSST defends it at #53; the other way MSST #53 into TEX's #18.
Form (last 5)
TEX
Clear advantage
MSST −14.4 per game over the last five, TEX +3.4.
Market
TEX
Clear advantage
Consensus has TEX by 8.5; the model says TEX by 14.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TEX by 8.5 · model TEX by 14.7
Mkt TEX 8.5
Model TEX 14.7
← TEX by 28tieMSST by 28 →
6.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 44.0
Mkt 48.5
Model 44.0
24 pts6096 pts
12.3% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 44.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
