The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%Cincinnati BearcatsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CIN by 6.3market CIN by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
67.6 pointsmarket 68.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Cincinnati Bearcats at 64% to win, with the market at CIN by 3.5.
CIN has the advantage in passing: CIN passing ranks #13, BAY defends it at #75; the other way BAY #73 into CIN's #89.
CIN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: CIN points / scoring opportunity ranks #11, BAY defends it at #123; the other way BAY #68 into CIN's #96.
Form: BAY has the better last five games by 8.2 points a game (CIN -18.6, BAY -10.4).
Home field is with CIN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it CIN by 6.3 against a market CIN by 3.5: 2.8 points of daylight in CIN's favour. The model's total is 67.6 against a line of 68.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CIN by 6.3 · market CIN by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN passing ranks #13, BAY defends it at #75; the other way BAY #73 into CIN's #89.
Rushing game
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rushing ranks #14, BAY defends it at #104; the other way BAY #60 into CIN's #116.
Third down & red zone
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN points / scoring opportunity ranks #11, BAY defends it at #123; the other way BAY #68 into CIN's #96.
Big plays
CIN
Slight advantage
CIN rush explosiveness ranks #43, BAY defends it at #78; the other way BAY #88 into CIN's #49.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #3, BAY defends it at #130; the other way BAY #35 into CIN's #101.
Ball security
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN turnovers / game ranks #40, BAY defends it at #111; the other way BAY #130 into CIN's #120.
Form (last 5)
BAY
Clear advantage
CIN −18.6 per game over the last five, BAY −10.4.
Market
CIN
Clear advantage
Consensus has CIN by 3.5; the model says CIN by 6.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CIN by 3.5 · model CIN by 6.3
Mkt CIN 3.5
Model CIN 6.3
← BAY by 28tieCIN by 28 →
4.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 68.5 · model 67.6
Mkt 68.5
Model 67.6
24 pts6096 pts
1.4% of FBS games finish between 68.5 and 67.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
