The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
67%Virginia CavaliersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UVA by 7.6market UVA by 11.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.3 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Virginia Cavaliers at 67% to win, with the market at UVA by 11.5.
UVA has the advantage in rushing: UVA rushing ranks #21, UNC defends it at #98; the other way UNC #123 into UVA's #42.
UVA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UVA third-down conversion ranks #11, UNC defends it at #103; the other way UNC #95 into UVA's #2.
Form: UVA has the better last five games by 10.6 points a game (UNC -4.8, UVA +5.8).
Home field is with UNC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UVA by 7.6 against a market UVA by 11.5: 3.9 points of daylight in UNC's favour. The model's total is 53.3 against a line of 50.5: 2.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UVA by 7.6 · market UVA by 11.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UVA
Slight advantage
UVA passing ranks #66, UNC defends it at #65; the other way UNC #68 into UVA's #33.
Rushing game
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA rushing ranks #21, UNC defends it at #98; the other way UNC #123 into UVA's #42.
Third down & red zone
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA third-down conversion ranks #11, UNC defends it at #103; the other way UNC #95 into UVA's #2.
Big plays
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA rush explosiveness ranks #27, UNC defends it at #92; the other way UNC #131 into UVA's #54.
Pass protection & rush
UVA
Slight advantage
UVA sack rate ranks #10, UNC defends it at #31; the other way UNC #66 into UVA's #49.
Ball security
UVA
Clear advantage
UVA turnovers / game ranks #36, UNC defends it at #100; the other way UNC #69 into UVA's #47.
Form (last 5)
UVA
Clear advantage
UNC −4.8 per game over the last five, UVA +5.8.
Market
UVA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UVA by 11.5; the model says UVA by 7.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UVA by 11.5 · model UVA by 7.6
Mkt UVA 11.5
Model UVA 7.6
← UVA by 28tieUNC by 28 →
4.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 53.3
Mkt 50.5
Model 53.3
24 pts6096 pts
7.3% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 53.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
