The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
94%Texas Tech Red RaidersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TTU by 27.3market TTU by 37.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.6 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Tech Red Raiders at 94% to win, with the market at TTU by 37.5.
TTU has the advantage in passing: TTU passing ranks #39, OKST defends it at #132; the other way OKST #126 into TTU's #1.
TTU has the advantage in rushing: TTU rushing ranks #41, OKST defends it at #102; the other way OKST #130 into TTU's #1.
Form: TTU has the better last five games by 38.2 points a game (TTU +22.8, OKST -15.4).
Home field is with TTU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TTU by 27.3 against a market TTU by 37.5: 10.2 points of daylight in OKST's favour. The model's total is 62.6 against a line of 56.5: 6.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TTU by 27.3 · market TTU by 37.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU passing ranks #39, OKST defends it at #132; the other way OKST #126 into TTU's #1.
Rushing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rushing ranks #41, OKST defends it at #102; the other way OKST #130 into TTU's #1.
Third down & red zone
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU third-down conversion ranks #12, OKST defends it at #112; the other way OKST #108 into TTU's #7.
Big plays
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU pass explosiveness ranks #52, OKST defends it at #111; the other way OKST #124 into TTU's #9.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
TTU sack rate ranks #39, OKST defends it at #64; the other way OKST #46 into TTU's #56.
Ball security
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU turnovers / game ranks #72, OKST defends it at #103; the other way OKST #89 into TTU's #2.
Form (last 5)
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU +22.8 per game over the last five, OKST −15.4.
Market
TTU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TTU by 37.5; the model says TTU by 27.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 37.5 · model TTU by 27.3
Mkt TTU 37.5
Model TTU 27.3
← OKST by 28tieTTU by 28 →
10.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 62.6
Mkt 56.5
Model 62.6
24 pts6096 pts
13.4% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 62.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
