The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Vanderbilt CommodoresLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
VAN by 2.1market VAN by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.3 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Vanderbilt Commodores at 55% to win, with the market at VAN by 3.
VAN has the advantage in big plays: VAN pass explosiveness ranks #74, MIZ defends it at #81; the other way MIZ #114 into VAN's #75.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours MIZ. MIZ sack rate ranks #91, VAN defends it at #79; the other way VAN #74 into MIZ's #8. The pick still lands on VAN because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: VAN has the better last five games by 9.6 points a game (VAN +9.2, MIZ -0.4).
Home field is with VAN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it VAN by 2.1 against a market VAN by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 60.3 against a line of 52.5: 7.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model VAN by 2.1 · market VAN by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
MIZ passing ranks #98, VAN defends it at #118; the other way VAN #1 into MIZ's #19.
Rushing game
=
Even
VAN rushing ranks #2, MIZ defends it at #33; the other way MIZ #18 into VAN's #29.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, VAN defends it at #111; the other way VAN #6 into MIZ's #38.
Big plays
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN pass explosiveness ranks #74, MIZ defends it at #81; the other way MIZ #114 into VAN's #75.
Pass protection & rush
MIZ
Slight advantage
MIZ sack rate ranks #91, VAN defends it at #79; the other way VAN #74 into MIZ's #8.
Ball security
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN turnovers / game ranks #21, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into VAN's #91.
Form (last 5)
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN +9.2 per game over the last five, MIZ −0.4.
Market
VAN
Slight advantage
Consensus has VAN by 3; the model says VAN by 2.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VAN by 3 · model VAN by 2.1
Mkt VAN 3
Model VAN 2.1
← MIZ by 28tieVAN by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 2.1, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 60.3
Mkt 52.5
Model 60.3
24 pts6096 pts
17.2% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 60.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
