The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
91%Boise State BroncosStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BOIS by 23.2market BOIS by 21
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.7 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boise State Broncos at 91% to win, with the market at BOIS by 21.
BOIS has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: BOIS third-down conversion ranks #26, NEV defends it at #55; the other way NEV #126 into BOIS's #22.
BOIS has the advantage in passing: BOIS passing ranks #81, NEV defends it at #44; the other way NEV #134 into BOIS's #9.
Form: BOIS has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (NEV -6.4, BOIS +1.6).
Home field is with NEV, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BOIS by 23.2 against a market BOIS by 21: 2.2 points of daylight in BOIS's favour. The model's total is 48.7 against a line of 50.5: 1.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BOIS by 23.2 · market BOIS by 21
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS passing ranks #81, NEV defends it at #44; the other way NEV #134 into BOIS's #9.
Rushing game
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS rushing ranks #43, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into BOIS's #105.
Third down & red zone
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS third-down conversion ranks #26, NEV defends it at #55; the other way NEV #126 into BOIS's #22.
Big plays
NEV
Slight advantage
NEV rush explosiveness ranks #41, BOIS defends it at #131; the other way BOIS #58 into NEV's #113.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #51, NEV defends it at #100; the other way NEV #72 into BOIS's #55.
Ball security
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS turnovers / game ranks #96, NEV defends it at #70; the other way NEV #133 into BOIS's #28.
Form (last 5)
BOIS
Clear advantage
NEV −6.4 per game over the last five, BOIS +1.6.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 21; the model says BOIS by 23.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 21 · model BOIS by 23.2
Mkt BOIS 21
Model BOIS 23.2
← BOIS by 28tieNEV by 28 →
0.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 21, a number 3.5% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 48.7
Mkt 50.5
Model 48.7
24 pts6096 pts
3.7% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 48.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
