The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HAW by 0.3market CSU by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
47.5 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at 51% to win, with the market at CSU by 2.5.
HAW has the advantage in passing: HAW passing ranks #43, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into HAW's #66.
HAW has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: HAW third-down conversion ranks #29, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into HAW's #45.
Form: HAW has the better last five games by 26.6 points a game (CSU -22.4, HAW +4.2).
Home field is with CSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HAW by 0.3 against a market CSU by 2.5: 2.8 points of daylight in HAW's favour. The model's total is 47.5 against a line of 53.5: 6.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HAW by 0.3 · market CSU by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW passing ranks #43, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into HAW's #66.
Rushing game
CSU
Slight advantage
CSU rushing ranks #87, HAW defends it at #82; the other way HAW #131 into CSU's #87.
Third down & red zone
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW third-down conversion ranks #29, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into HAW's #45.
Big plays
HAW
Slight advantage
HAW pass explosiveness ranks #61, CSU defends it at #122; the other way CSU #90 into HAW's #78.
Pass protection & rush
HAW
Clear advantage
HAW sack rate ranks #56, CSU defends it at #104; the other way CSU #111 into HAW's #32.
Ball security
=
Even
HAW turnovers / game ranks #77, CSU defends it at #60; the other way CSU #115 into HAW's #89.
Form (last 5)
HAW
Clear advantage
CSU −22.4 per game over the last five, HAW +4.2.
Market
CSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has CSU by 2.5; the model says HAW by 0.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CSU by 2.5 · model HAW by 0.3
Mkt CSU 2.5
Model HAW 0.3
← HAW by 28tieCSU by 28 →
2.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 47.5
Mkt 53.5
Model 47.5
24 pts6096 pts
14.3% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 47.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
