The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%Iowa HawkeyesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IOWA by 3.7market IOWA by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
46.2 pointsmarket 41.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa Hawkeyes at 59% to win, with the market at IOWA by 3.
IOWA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: IOWA third-down conversion ranks #34, PSU defends it at #93; the other way PSU #33 into IOWA's #23.
IOWA has the advantage in rushing: IOWA rushing ranks #20, PSU defends it at #71; the other way PSU #28 into IOWA's #46.
Home field is with IOWA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it IOWA by 3.7 against a market IOWA by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 46.2 against a line of 41.5: 4.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IOWA by 3.7 · market IOWA by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
PSU passing ranks #58, IOWA defends it at #20; the other way IOWA #89 into PSU's #32.
Rushing game
IOWA
Slight advantage
IOWA rushing ranks #20, PSU defends it at #71; the other way PSU #28 into IOWA's #46.
Third down & red zone
IOWA
Slight advantage
IOWA third-down conversion ranks #34, PSU defends it at #93; the other way PSU #33 into IOWA's #23.
Big plays
=
Even
IOWA pass explosiveness ranks #68, PSU defends it at #26; the other way PSU #110 into IOWA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU sack rate ranks #69, IOWA defends it at #61; the other way IOWA #71 into PSU's #24.
Ball security
=
Even
PSU turnovers / game ranks #7, IOWA defends it at #95; the other way IOWA #28 into PSU's #104.
Form (last 5)
PSU
Slight advantage
IOWA +5.4 per game over the last five, PSU +11.6.
Market
IOWA
Slight advantage
Consensus has IOWA by 3; the model says IOWA by 3.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IOWA by 3 · model IOWA by 3.7
Mkt IOWA 3
Model IOWA 3.7
← PSU by 28tieIOWA by 28 →
No whole-number margin falls between 3 and 3.7, so the two numbers differ only on a push at 3. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 41.5 · model 46.2
Mkt 41.5
Model 46.2
24 pts6096 pts
9.9% of FBS games finish between 41.5 and 46.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
