The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Texas LonghornsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEX by 12.8market TEX by 12.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
45.5 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Longhorns at 77% to win, with the market at TEX by 12.5.
TEX has the advantage in passing: TEX passing ranks #49, UK defends it at #80; the other way UK #93 into TEX's #42.
TEX has the advantage in big plays: TEX rush explosiveness ranks #73, UK defends it at #38; the other way UK #120 into TEX's #3.
Rest: UK has 7 more days since its last game (UK 14d, TEX 7d).
Home field is with UK, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TEX by 12.8 against a market TEX by 12.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 45.5 against a line of 45.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEX by 12.8 · market TEX by 12.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX passing ranks #49, UK defends it at #80; the other way UK #93 into TEX's #42.
Rushing game
TEX
Slight advantage
TEX rushing ranks #68, UK defends it at #56; the other way UK #89 into TEX's #20.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TEX third-down conversion ranks #75, UK defends it at #73; the other way UK #63 into TEX's #18.
Big plays
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX rush explosiveness ranks #73, UK defends it at #38; the other way UK #120 into TEX's #3.
Pass protection & rush
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX sack rate ranks #57, UK defends it at #60; the other way UK #87 into TEX's #26.
Ball security
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX turnovers / game ranks #6, UK defends it at #81; the other way UK #126 into TEX's #18.
Form (last 5)
TEX
Slight advantage
UK +0.2 per game over the last five, TEX +3.4.
Market
TEX
Clear advantage
Consensus has TEX by 12.5; the model says TEX by 12.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TEX by 12.5 · model TEX by 12.8
Mkt TEX 12.5
Model TEX 12.8
← TEX by 28tieUK by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 45.5
Mkt 45.5
Model 45.5
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
