The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
51%LSU TigersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LSU by 0.2market VAN by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.6 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has LSU Tigers at 51% to win, with the market at VAN by 1.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours VAN. VAN rushing ranks #2, LSU defends it at #22; the other way LSU #118 into VAN's #29. The pick still lands on LSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: VAN has 7 more days since its last game (VAN 14d, LSU 7d).
Form: VAN has the better last five games by 12.0 points a game (VAN +9.2, LSU -2.8).
Home field is with VAN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LSU by 0.2 against a market VAN by 1.5: 1.7 points of daylight in LSU's favour. The model's total is 51.6 against a line of 48.5: 3.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LSU by 0.2 · market VAN by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor VAN, but the model still picks LSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
LSU passing ranks #70, VAN defends it at #118; the other way VAN #1 into LSU's #26.
Rushing game
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rushing ranks #2, LSU defends it at #22; the other way LSU #118 into VAN's #29.
Third down & red zone
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN points / scoring opportunity ranks #3, LSU defends it at #32; the other way LSU #103 into VAN's #90.
Big plays
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rush explosiveness ranks #2, LSU defends it at #44; the other way LSU #112 into VAN's #46.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
VAN sack rate ranks #74, LSU defends it at #77; the other way LSU #83 into VAN's #79.
Ball security
LSU
Slight advantage
LSU turnovers / game ranks #43, VAN defends it at #91; the other way VAN #21 into LSU's #32.
Form (last 5)
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN +9.2 per game over the last five, LSU −2.8.
Market
VAN
Slight advantage
Consensus has VAN by 1.5; the model says LSU by 0.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VAN by 1.5 · model LSU by 0.2
Mkt VAN 1.5
Model LSU 0.2
← LSU by 28tieVAN by 28 →
1.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 51.6
Mkt 48.5
Model 51.6
24 pts6096 pts
7.3% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 51.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
