The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Utah State AggiesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
USU by 1.4market USU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
73.8 pointsmarket 63.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Utah State Aggies at 53% to win, with the market at USU by 3.
USU has the advantage in passing: USU passing ranks #51, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into USU's #60.
USU has the advantage in big plays: USU pass explosiveness ranks #67, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into USU's #24.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours SJSU. SJSU sack rate ranks #1, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into SJSU's #109. The pick still lands on USU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: USU has the better last five games by 25.6 points a game (USU +6.2, SJSU -19.4).
Home field is with USU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it USU by 1.4 against a market USU by 3: 1.6 points of daylight in SJSU's favour. The model's total is 73.8 against a line of 63.5: 10.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model USU by 1.4 · market USU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USU
Clear advantage
USU passing ranks #51, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into USU's #60.
Rushing game
=
Even
USU rushing ranks #38, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #81 into USU's #115.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
USU points / scoring opportunity ranks #16, SJSU defends it at #107; the other way SJSU #129 into USU's #77.
Big plays
USU
Clear advantage
USU pass explosiveness ranks #67, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into USU's #24.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Clear advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #1, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into SJSU's #109.
Ball security
USU
Clear advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
USU
Clear advantage
USU +6.2 per game over the last five, SJSU −19.4.
Market
USU
Slight advantage
Consensus has USU by 3; the model says USU by 1.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USU by 3 · model USU by 1.4
Mkt USU 3
Model USU 1.4
← SJSU by 28tieUSU by 28 →
1.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 63.5 · model 73.8
Mkt 63.5
Model 73.8
24 pts6096 pts
15.1% of FBS games finish between 63.5 and 73.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
