The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
76%San Diego State AztecsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SDSU by 11.9market SDSU by 6.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.4 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San Diego State Aztecs at 76% to win, with the market at SDSU by 6.5.
SDSU has the advantage in rushing: SDSU rushing ranks #35, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into SDSU's #51.
SDSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: SDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #90, NEV defends it at #112; the other way NEV #132 into SDSU's #3.
Home field is with NEV, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it SDSU by 11.9 against a market SDSU by 6.5: 5.4 points of daylight in SDSU's favour. The model's total is 40.4 against a line of 42.5: 2.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SDSU by 11.9 · market SDSU by 6.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU passing ranks #125, NEV defends it at #44; the other way NEV #134 into SDSU's #2.
Rushing game
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU rushing ranks #35, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into SDSU's #51.
Third down & red zone
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #90, NEV defends it at #112; the other way NEV #132 into SDSU's #3.
Big plays
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #20, NEV defends it at #2; the other way NEV #122 into SDSU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU sack rate ranks #77, NEV defends it at #100; the other way NEV #72 into SDSU's #25.
Ball security
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU turnovers / game ranks #54, NEV defends it at #70; the other way NEV #133 into SDSU's #54.
Form (last 5)
SDSU
Slight advantage
NEV −6.4 per game over the last five, SDSU −1.6.
Market
SDSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has SDSU by 6.5; the model says SDSU by 11.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SDSU by 6.5 · model SDSU by 11.9
Mkt SDSU 6.5
Model SDSU 11.9
← SDSU by 28tieNEV by 28 →
7.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 40.4
Mkt 42.5
Model 40.4
24 pts6096 pts
4.5% of FBS games finish between 42.5 and 40.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
