The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Texas State BobcatsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TXST by 8.6market TXST by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
55.1 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas State Bobcats at 69% to win, with the market at TXST by 7.5.
TXST has the advantage in rushing: TXST rushing ranks #5, TROY defends it at #76; the other way TROY #115 into TXST's #70.
TXST has the advantage in passing: TXST passing ranks #20, TROY defends it at #35; the other way TROY #108 into TXST's #88.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours TROY. TROY turnovers / game ranks #73, TXST defends it at #110; the other way TXST #79 into TROY's #66. The pick still lands on TXST because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: TXST has the better last five games by 25.4 points a game (TXST +19.0, TROY -6.4).
Home field is with TXST, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TXST by 8.6 against a market TXST by 7.5: 1.1 points of daylight in TXST's favour. The model's total is 55.1 against a line of 53.5: 1.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TXST by 8.6 · market TXST by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TXST
Slight advantage
TXST passing ranks #20, TROY defends it at #35; the other way TROY #108 into TXST's #88.
Rushing game
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST rushing ranks #5, TROY defends it at #76; the other way TROY #115 into TXST's #70.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TXST third-down conversion ranks #23, TROY defends it at #58; the other way TROY #80 into TXST's #90.
Big plays
TXST
Slight advantage
TXST rush explosiveness ranks #10, TROY defends it at #58; the other way TROY #113 into TXST's #114.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
TROY sack rate ranks #133, TXST defends it at #87; the other way TXST #79 into TROY's #18.
Ball security
TROY
Slight advantage
TROY turnovers / game ranks #73, TXST defends it at #110; the other way TXST #79 into TROY's #66.
Form (last 5)
TXST
Clear advantage
TXST +19.0 per game over the last five, TROY −6.4.
Market
TXST
Clear advantage
Consensus has TXST by 7.5; the model says TXST by 8.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TXST by 7.5 · model TXST by 8.6
Mkt TXST 7.5
Model TXST 8.6
← TROY by 28tieTXST by 28 →
1.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 55.1
Mkt 53.5
Model 55.1
24 pts6096 pts
5.6% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 55.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
