The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%UTSA RoadrunnersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTSA by 10.4market UTSA by 8.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.8 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTSA Roadrunners at 73% to win, with the market at UTSA by 8.5.
UTSA has the advantage in passing: UTSA passing ranks #47, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into UTSA's #81.
UTSA has the advantage in rushing: UTSA rushing ranks #27, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into UTSA's #79.
Form: UTSA has the better last five games by 37.2 points a game (UTSA +11.4, RICE -25.8).
Home field is with UTSA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UTSA by 10.4 against a market UTSA by 8.5: 1.9 points of daylight in UTSA's favour. The model's total is 48.8 against a line of 48.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTSA by 10.4 · market UTSA by 8.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA passing ranks #47, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into UTSA's #81.
Rushing game
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA rushing ranks #27, RICE defends it at #107; the other way RICE #92 into UTSA's #79.
Third down & red zone
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA third-down conversion ranks #71, RICE defends it at #114; the other way RICE #116 into UTSA's #29.
Big plays
=
Even
UTSA rush explosiveness ranks #5, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #50 into UTSA's #70.
Pass protection & rush
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA sack rate ranks #23, RICE defends it at #42; the other way RICE #122 into UTSA's #80.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, RICE defends it at #132; the other way RICE #12 into UTSA's #57.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA +11.4 per game over the last five, RICE −25.8.
Market
UTSA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 8.5; the model says UTSA by 10.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 8.5 · model UTSA by 10.4
Mkt UTSA 8.5
Model UTSA 10.4
← RICE by 28tieUTSA by 28 →
3.3% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 48.8
Mkt 48.5
Model 48.8
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
