The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
50%Maryland TerrapinsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MD by 0.0market NEB by 7
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.8 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Maryland Terrapins at 50% to win, with the market at NEB by 7.
MD has the advantage in big plays: MD rush explosiveness ranks #44, NEB defends it at #127; the other way NEB #123 into MD's #35.
MD has the advantage in passing: MD passing ranks #72, NEB defends it at #52; the other way NEB #80 into MD's #25.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours NEB. NEB third-down conversion ranks #27, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into NEB's #67. The pick still lands on MD because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: NEB has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (MD -22.6, NEB -14.0).
Home field is with MD, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MD by 0.0 against a market NEB by 7: 7.0 points of daylight in MD's favour. The model's total is 50.8 against a line of 47.5: 3.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MD by 0.0 · market NEB by 7
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MD
Slight advantage
MD passing ranks #72, NEB defends it at #52; the other way NEB #80 into MD's #25.
Rushing game
=
Even
MD rushing ranks #93, NEB defends it at #131; the other way NEB #67 into MD's #89.
Third down & red zone
NEB
Slight advantage
NEB third-down conversion ranks #27, MD defends it at #102; the other way MD #99 into NEB's #67.
Big plays
MD
Slight advantage
MD rush explosiveness ranks #44, NEB defends it at #127; the other way NEB #123 into MD's #35.
Pass protection & rush
MD
Clear advantage
MD sack rate ranks #2, NEB defends it at #38; the other way NEB #119 into MD's #66.
Ball security
MD
Slight advantage
MD turnovers / game ranks #60, NEB defends it at #105; the other way NEB #13 into MD's #20.
Form (last 5)
NEB
Clear advantage
MD −22.6 per game over the last five, NEB −14.0.
Market
NEB
Clear advantage
Consensus has NEB by 7; the model says MD by 0.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NEB by 7 · model MD by 0.0
Mkt NEB 7
Model MD 0.0
← NEB by 28tieMD by 28 →
10.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 7, a number 7.5% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 50.8
Mkt 47.5
Model 50.8
24 pts6096 pts
7.0% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 50.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
