The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%Penn State Nittany LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PSU by 18.5market PSU by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.6 pointsmarket 46.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Penn State Nittany Lions at 86% to win, with the market at PSU by 20.5.
PSU has the advantage in passing: PSU passing ranks #58, NU defends it at #71; the other way NU #83 into PSU's #32.
PSU has the advantage in rushing: PSU rushing ranks #28, NU defends it at #101; the other way NU #58 into PSU's #71.
Form: PSU has the better last five games by 11.6 points a game (PSU +11.6, NU +0.0).
Home field is with PSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PSU by 18.5 against a market PSU by 20.5: 2.0 points of daylight in NU's favour. The model's total is 48.6 against a line of 46.5: 2.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PSU by 18.5 · market PSU by 20.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU passing ranks #58, NU defends it at #71; the other way NU #83 into PSU's #32.
Rushing game
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU rushing ranks #28, NU defends it at #101; the other way NU #58 into PSU's #71.
Third down & red zone
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #25, NU defends it at #41; the other way NU #115 into PSU's #37.
Big plays
=
Even
PSU rush explosiveness ranks #53, NU defends it at #88; the other way NU #93 into PSU's #60.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
PSU sack rate ranks #69, NU defends it at #74; the other way NU #40 into PSU's #24.
Ball security
PSU
Slight advantage
PSU turnovers / game ranks #7, NU defends it at #36; the other way NU #110 into PSU's #104.
Form (last 5)
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU +11.6 per game over the last five, NU 0.0.
Market
PSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has PSU by 20.5; the model says PSU by 18.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PSU by 20.5 · model PSU by 18.5
Mkt PSU 20.5
Model PSU 18.5
← NU by 28tiePSU by 28 →
1.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 46.5 · model 48.6
Mkt 46.5
Model 48.6
24 pts6096 pts
5.4% of FBS games finish between 46.5 and 48.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
