The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
88%Notre Dame Fighting IrishStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ND by 20.0market ND by 23.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.8 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Notre Dame Fighting Irish at 88% to win, with the market at ND by 23.5.
ND has the advantage in passing: ND passing ranks #11, NCSU defends it at #99; the other way NCSU #33 into ND's #6.
ND has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: ND third-down conversion ranks #13, NCSU defends it at #127; the other way NCSU #51 into ND's #39.
Form: ND has the better last five games by 26.6 points a game (ND +33.6, NCSU +7.0).
Home field is with ND, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ND by 20.0 against a market ND by 23.5: 3.5 points of daylight in NCSU's favour. The model's total is 61.8 against a line of 59.5: 2.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ND by 20.0 · market ND by 23.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND passing ranks #11, NCSU defends it at #99; the other way NCSU #33 into ND's #6.
Rushing game
ND
Clear advantage
ND rushing ranks #11, NCSU defends it at #92; the other way NCSU #39 into ND's #36.
Third down & red zone
ND
Clear advantage
ND third-down conversion ranks #13, NCSU defends it at #127; the other way NCSU #51 into ND's #39.
Big plays
ND
Clear advantage
ND rush explosiveness ranks #8, NCSU defends it at #123; the other way NCSU #20 into ND's #23.
Pass protection & rush
ND
Clear advantage
ND sack rate ranks #14, NCSU defends it at #116; the other way NCSU #62 into ND's #16.
Ball security
ND
Clear advantage
ND turnovers / game ranks #9, NCSU defends it at #87; the other way NCSU #32 into ND's #12.
Form (last 5)
ND
Clear advantage
ND +33.6 per game over the last five, NCSU +7.0.
Market
ND
Clear advantage
Consensus has ND by 23.5; the model says ND by 20.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ND by 23.5 · model ND by 20.0
Mkt ND 23.5
Model ND 20.0
← NCSU by 28tieND by 28 →
4.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 61.8
Mkt 59.5
Model 61.8
24 pts6096 pts
2.9% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 61.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
