The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Missouri TigersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 1.5market ALA by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.1 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 53% to win, with the market at ALA by 3.
MIZ has the advantage in rushing: MIZ rushing ranks #18, ALA defends it at #61; the other way ALA #106 into MIZ's #33.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours ALA. ALA turnovers / game ranks #15, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into ALA's #59. The pick still lands on MIZ because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: MIZ has 7 more days since its last game (MIZ 14d, ALA 7d).
Home field is with MIZ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 1.5 against a market ALA by 3: 4.5 points of daylight in MIZ's favour. The model's total is 53.1 against a line of 50.5: 2.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 1.5 · market ALA by 3
ⓘMost of these areas favor ALA, but the model still picks MIZ. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
ALA
Slight advantage
ALA passing ranks #36, MIZ defends it at #19; the other way MIZ #98 into ALA's #28.
Rushing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ rushing ranks #18, ALA defends it at #61; the other way ALA #106 into MIZ's #33.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, ALA defends it at #51; the other way ALA #46 into MIZ's #38.
Big plays
=
Even
MIZ rush explosiveness ranks #23, ALA defends it at #84; the other way ALA #122 into MIZ's #51.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ALA sack rate ranks #55, MIZ defends it at #8; the other way MIZ #91 into ALA's #30.
Ball security
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA turnovers / game ranks #15, MIZ defends it at #109; the other way MIZ #76 into ALA's #59.
Form (last 5)
ALA
Slight advantage
MIZ −0.4 per game over the last five, ALA +3.4.
Market
ALA
Slight advantage
Consensus has ALA by 3; the model says MIZ by 1.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ALA by 3 · model MIZ by 1.5
Mkt ALA 3
Model MIZ 1.5
← ALA by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
4.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 53.1
Mkt 50.5
Model 53.1
24 pts6096 pts
7.3% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 53.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
