The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Texas LonghornsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TEX by 2.8market TEX by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
41.4 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Longhorns at 56% to win, with the market at TEX by 2.5.
TEX has the advantage in big plays: TEX rush explosiveness ranks #73, OU defends it at #121; the other way OU #81 into TEX's #3.
TEX has the advantage in rushing: TEX rushing ranks #68, OU defends it at #7; the other way OU #108 into TEX's #20.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours OU. OU points / scoring opportunity ranks #61, TEX defends it at #76; the other way TEX #88 into OU's #7. The pick still lands on TEX because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it TEX by 2.8 against a market TEX by 2.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 41.4 against a line of 44.5: 3.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TEX by 2.8 · market TEX by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
TEX passing ranks #49, OU defends it at #21; the other way OU #86 into TEX's #42.
Rushing game
TEX
Slight advantage
TEX rushing ranks #68, OU defends it at #7; the other way OU #108 into TEX's #20.
Third down & red zone
OU
Slight advantage
OU points / scoring opportunity ranks #61, TEX defends it at #76; the other way TEX #88 into OU's #7.
Big plays
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX rush explosiveness ranks #73, OU defends it at #121; the other way OU #81 into TEX's #3.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
TEX sack rate ranks #57, OU defends it at #3; the other way OU #98 into TEX's #26.
Ball security
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX turnovers / game ranks #6, OU defends it at #102; the other way OU #65 into TEX's #18.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
TEX +3.4 per game over the last five, OU +2.6.
Market
TEX
Slight advantage
Consensus has TEX by 2.5; the model says TEX by 2.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TEX by 2.5 · model TEX by 2.8
Mkt TEX 2.5
Model TEX 2.8
← OU by 28tieTEX by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 41.4
Mkt 44.5
Model 41.4
24 pts6096 pts
5.4% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 41.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
