The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
64%North Texas Mean GreenSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNT by 6.3market UNT by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
71.7 pointsmarket 68.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Texas Mean Green at 64% to win, with the market at UNT by 2.5.
Counterpoint: third downs and the red zone favours USF. USF points / scoring opportunity ranks #17, UNT defends it at #104; the other way UNT #4 into USF's #28. The pick still lands on UNT because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: UNT has 6 more days since its last game (UNT 13d, USF 7d).
Home field is with UNT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UNT by 6.3 against a market UNT by 2.5: 3.8 points of daylight in UNT's favour. The model's total is 71.7 against a line of 68.5: 3.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNT by 6.3 · market UNT by 2.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor USF, but the model still picks UNT. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
UNT passing ranks #14, USF defends it at #34; the other way USF #9 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
=
Even
USF rushing ranks #46, UNT defends it at #88; the other way UNT #3 into USF's #32.
Third down & red zone
USF
Slight advantage
USF points / scoring opportunity ranks #17, UNT defends it at #104; the other way UNT #4 into USF's #28.
Big plays
=
Even
USF pass explosiveness ranks #14, UNT defends it at #112; the other way UNT #63 into USF's #66.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UNT sack rate ranks #25, USF defends it at #90; the other way USF #43 into UNT's #96.
Ball security
=
Even
UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, USF defends it at #10; the other way USF #104 into UNT's #6.
Form (last 5)
USF
Slight advantage
UNT +15.4 per game over the last five, USF +18.8.
Market
UNT
Slight advantage
Consensus has UNT by 2.5; the model says UNT by 6.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 2.5 · model UNT by 6.3
Mkt UNT 2.5
Model UNT 6.3
← USF by 28tieUNT by 28 →
9.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 68.5 · model 71.7
Mkt 68.5
Model 71.7
24 pts6096 pts
4.8% of FBS games finish between 68.5 and 71.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
