The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Rice OwlsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
RICE by 8.3market RICE by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.6 pointsmarket 54.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Rice Owls at 69% to win, with the market at RICE by 4.5.
RICE has the advantage in rushing: RICE rushing ranks #92, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #119 into RICE's #107.
Counterpoint: passing favours FAU. FAU passing ranks #54, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into FAU's #92. The pick still lands on RICE because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: FAU has the better last five games by 17.0 points a game (RICE -25.8, FAU -8.8).
Home field is with RICE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it RICE by 8.3 against a market RICE by 4.5: 3.8 points of daylight in RICE's favour. The model's total is 53.6 against a line of 54.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model RICE by 8.3 · market RICE by 4.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor FAU, but the model still picks RICE. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
FAU
Clear advantage
FAU passing ranks #54, RICE defends it at #115; the other way RICE #121 into FAU's #92.
Rushing game
RICE
Slight advantage
RICE rushing ranks #92, FAU defends it at #132; the other way FAU #119 into RICE's #107.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
RICE points / scoring opportunity ranks #114, FAU defends it at #131; the other way FAU #92 into RICE's #74.
Big plays
=
Even
FAU pass explosiveness ranks #49, RICE defends it at #133; the other way RICE #28 into FAU's #79.
Pass protection & rush
FAU
Slight advantage
FAU sack rate ranks #19, RICE defends it at #42; the other way RICE #122 into FAU's #93.
Ball security
RICE
Clear advantage
RICE turnovers / game ranks #12, FAU defends it at #131; the other way FAU #135 into RICE's #132.
Form (last 5)
FAU
Clear advantage
RICE −25.8 per game over the last five, FAU −8.8.
Market
RICE
Clear advantage
Consensus has RICE by 4.5; the model says RICE by 8.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket RICE by 4.5 · model RICE by 8.3
Mkt RICE 4.5
Model RICE 8.3
← FAU by 28tieRICE by 28 →
8.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 54.5 · model 53.6
Mkt 54.5
Model 53.6
24 pts6096 pts
2.1% of FBS games finish between 54.5 and 53.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
