The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%Baylor BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BAY by 3.0market BAY by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
63.8 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Baylor Bears at 57% to win, with the market at BAY by 4.5.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours KSU. KSU turnovers / game ranks #67, BAY defends it at #111; the other way BAY #130 into KSU's #4. The pick still lands on BAY because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: KSU has the better last five games by 13.6 points a game (BAY -10.4, KSU +3.2).
Home field is with BAY, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it BAY by 3.0 against a market BAY by 4.5: 1.5 points of daylight in KSU's favour. The model's total is 63.8 against a line of 59.5: 4.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BAY by 3.0 · market BAY by 4.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor KSU, but the model still picks BAY. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
KSU
Slight advantage
KSU passing ranks #82, BAY defends it at #75; the other way BAY #73 into KSU's #22.
Rushing game
KSU
Slight advantage
KSU rushing ranks #44, BAY defends it at #104; the other way BAY #60 into KSU's #80.
Third down & red zone
KSU
Clear advantage
KSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #32, BAY defends it at #123; the other way BAY #68 into KSU's #49.
Big plays
=
Even
KSU rush explosiveness ranks #3, BAY defends it at #78; the other way BAY #88 into KSU's #129.
Pass protection & rush
KSU
Clear advantage
KSU sack rate ranks #22, BAY defends it at #130; the other way BAY #35 into KSU's #59.
Ball security
KSU
Clear advantage
KSU turnovers / game ranks #67, BAY defends it at #111; the other way BAY #130 into KSU's #4.
Form (last 5)
KSU
Clear advantage
BAY −10.4 per game over the last five, KSU +3.2.
Market
BAY
Clear advantage
Consensus has BAY by 4.5; the model says BAY by 3.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BAY by 4.5 · model BAY by 3.0
Mkt BAY 4.5
Model BAY 3.0
← KSU by 28tieBAY by 28 →
1.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 63.8
Mkt 59.5
Model 63.8
24 pts6096 pts
7.6% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 63.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
