The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
79%Michigan WolverinesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MICH by 13.6market MICH by 17.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.6 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Michigan Wolverines at 79% to win, with the market at MICH by 17.5.
MICH has the advantage in rushing: MICH rushing ranks #15, WIS defends it at #52; the other way WIS #107 into MICH's #45.
MICH has the advantage in passing: MICH passing ranks #95, WIS defends it at #102; the other way WIS #133 into MICH's #55.
Home field is with MICH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MICH by 13.6 against a market MICH by 17.5: 3.9 points of daylight in WIS's favour. The model's total is 42.6 against a line of 42.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MICH by 13.6 · market MICH by 17.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH passing ranks #95, WIS defends it at #102; the other way WIS #133 into MICH's #55.
Rushing game
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH rushing ranks #15, WIS defends it at #52; the other way WIS #107 into MICH's #45.
Third down & red zone
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH third-down conversion ranks #32, WIS defends it at #54; the other way WIS #125 into MICH's #52.
Big plays
=
Even
WIS rush explosiveness ranks #31, MICH defends it at #33; the other way MICH #60 into WIS's #21.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
MICH sack rate ranks #76, WIS defends it at #13; the other way WIS #126 into MICH's #51.
Ball security
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH turnovers / game ranks #75, WIS defends it at #134; the other way WIS #83 into MICH's #42.
Form (last 5)
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH 0.0 per game over the last five, WIS −5.6.
Market
MICH
Clear advantage
Consensus has MICH by 17.5; the model says MICH by 13.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MICH by 17.5 · model MICH by 13.6
Mkt MICH 17.5
Model MICH 13.6
← WIS by 28tieMICH by 28 →
6.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 42.6
Mkt 42.5
Model 42.6
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
