The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Iowa State CyclonesSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ISU by 7.0market CIN by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.6 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa State Cyclones at 66% to win, with the market at CIN by 1.5.
ISU has the advantage in rushing: ISU rushing ranks #42, CIN defends it at #116; the other way CIN #14 into ISU's #15.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours CIN. CIN sack rate ranks #3, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into CIN's #101. The pick still lands on ISU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ISU has the better last five games by 21.6 points a game (CIN -18.6, ISU +3.0).
Home field is with CIN, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it ISU by 7.0 against a market CIN by 1.5: 8.5 points of daylight in ISU's favour. The model's total is 51.6 against a line of 55.5: 3.9 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ISU by 7.0 · market CIN by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
CIN passing ranks #13, ISU defends it at #64; the other way ISU #45 into CIN's #89.
Rushing game
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU rushing ranks #42, CIN defends it at #116; the other way CIN #14 into ISU's #15.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ISU third-down conversion ranks #69, CIN defends it at #94; the other way CIN #81 into ISU's #63.
Big plays
=
Even
CIN pass explosiveness ranks #41, ISU defends it at #73; the other way ISU #54 into CIN's #45.
Pass protection & rush
CIN
Clear advantage
CIN sack rate ranks #3, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into CIN's #101.
Ball security
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU turnovers / game ranks #59, CIN defends it at #120; the other way CIN #40 into ISU's #39.
Form (last 5)
ISU
Clear advantage
CIN −18.6 per game over the last five, ISU +3.0.
Market
CIN
Slight advantage
Consensus has CIN by 1.5; the model says ISU by 7.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CIN by 1.5 · model ISU by 7.0
Mkt CIN 1.5
Model ISU 7.0
← ISU by 28tieCIN by 28 →
15.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 51.6
Mkt 55.5
Model 51.6
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 51.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
