The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%Texas Tech Red RaidersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TTU by 5.0market TTU by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.8 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas Tech Red Raiders at 61% to win, with the market at TTU by 13.5.
TTU has the advantage in rushing: TTU rushing ranks #41, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into TTU's #1.
TTU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TTU points / scoring opportunity ranks #42, HOU defends it at #94; the other way HOU #83 into TTU's #2.
Rest: TTU has 6 more days since its last game (HOU 8d, TTU 14d).
Form: TTU has the better last five games by 22.8 points a game (HOU +0.0, TTU +22.8).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TTU by 5.0 against a market TTU by 13.5: 8.5 points of daylight in HOU's favour. The model's total is 54.8 against a line of 51.5: 3.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TTU by 5.0 · market TTU by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TTU
Slight advantage
TTU passing ranks #39, HOU defends it at #54; the other way HOU #42 into TTU's #1.
Rushing game
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rushing ranks #41, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into TTU's #1.
Third down & red zone
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU points / scoring opportunity ranks #42, HOU defends it at #94; the other way HOU #83 into TTU's #2.
Big plays
TTU
Clear advantage
TTU rush explosiveness ranks #14, HOU defends it at #8; the other way HOU #128 into TTU's #1.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
HOU sack rate ranks #30, TTU defends it at #56; the other way TTU #39 into HOU's #50.
Ball security
=
Even
TTU turnovers / game ranks #72, HOU defends it at #51; the other way HOU #39 into TTU's #2.
Form (last 5)
TTU
Clear advantage
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, TTU +22.8.
Market
TTU
Clear advantage
Consensus has TTU by 13.5; the model says TTU by 5.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TTU by 13.5 · model TTU by 5.0
Mkt TTU 13.5
Model TTU 5.0
← TTU by 28tieHOU by 28 →
10.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 54.8
Mkt 51.5
Model 54.8
24 pts6096 pts
5.8% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 54.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
