The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
91%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 23.4market OSU by 23.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
39.5 pointsmarket 42.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 91% to win, with the market at OSU by 23.5.
OSU has the advantage in rushing: OSU rushing ranks #72, MINN defends it at #100; the other way MINN #112 into OSU's #2.
OSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, MINN defends it at #85; the other way MINN #66 into OSU's #10.
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 18.4 points a game (OSU +15.2, MINN -3.2).
Home field is with OSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 23.4 against a market OSU by 23.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 39.5 against a line of 42.5: 3.0 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 23.4 · market OSU by 23.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU passing ranks #2, MINN defends it at #63; the other way MINN #65 into OSU's #7.
Rushing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU rushing ranks #72, MINN defends it at #100; the other way MINN #112 into OSU's #2.
Third down & red zone
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU third-down conversion ranks #3, MINN defends it at #85; the other way MINN #66 into OSU's #10.
Big plays
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU pass explosiveness ranks #116, MINN defends it at #28; the other way MINN #126 into OSU's #1.
Pass protection & rush
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU sack rate ranks #27, MINN defends it at #2; the other way MINN #70 into OSU's #5.
Ball security
MINN
Slight advantage
MINN turnovers / game ranks #5, OSU defends it at #101; the other way OSU #8 into MINN's #77.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU +15.2 per game over the last five, MINN −3.2.
Market
OSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has OSU by 23.5; the model says OSU by 23.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 23.5 · model OSU by 23.4
Mkt OSU 23.5
Model OSU 23.4
← MINN by 28tieOSU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 42.5 · model 39.5
Mkt 42.5
Model 39.5
24 pts6096 pts
6.7% of FBS games finish between 42.5 and 39.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
