The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%San José State SpartansLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
SJSU by 3.5market SJSU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.8 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has San José State Spartans at 58% to win, with the market at SJSU by 1.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours UNM. UNM rushing ranks #59, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #81 into UNM's #28. The pick still lands on SJSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UNM has the better last five games by 25.0 points a game (SJSU -19.4, UNM +5.6).
Home field is with SJSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it SJSU by 3.5 against a market SJSU by 1.5: 2.0 points of daylight in SJSU's favour. The model's total is 60.8 against a line of 58.5: 2.3 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model SJSU by 3.5 · market SJSU by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor UNM, but the model still picks SJSU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
UNM
Slight advantage
UNM passing ranks #90, SJSU defends it at #114; the other way SJSU #88 into UNM's #57.
Rushing game
UNM
Clear advantage
UNM rushing ranks #59, SJSU defends it at #74; the other way SJSU #81 into UNM's #28.
Third down & red zone
UNM
Slight advantage
UNM points / scoring opportunity ranks #57, SJSU defends it at #107; the other way SJSU #129 into UNM's #17.
Big plays
UNM
Clear advantage
UNM pass explosiveness ranks #57, SJSU defends it at #127; the other way SJSU #105 into UNM's #36.
Pass protection & rush
SJSU
Slight advantage
SJSU sack rate ranks #1, UNM defends it at #15; the other way UNM #124 into SJSU's #109.
Ball security
UNM
Slight advantage
UNM turnovers / game ranks #123, SJSU defends it at #84; the other way SJSU #134 into UNM's #62.
Form (last 5)
UNM
Clear advantage
SJSU −19.4 per game over the last five, UNM +5.6.
Market
SJSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has SJSU by 1.5; the model says SJSU by 3.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket SJSU by 1.5 · model SJSU by 3.5
Mkt SJSU 1.5
Model SJSU 3.5
← UNM by 28tieSJSU by 28 →
6.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 60.8
Mkt 58.5
Model 60.8
24 pts6096 pts
4.0% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 60.8. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
