The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
61%UL Monroe WarhawksSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ULM by 4.6market ULM by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.0 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UL Monroe Warhawks at 61% to win, with the market at ULM by 1.5.
ULM has the advantage in big plays: ULM rush explosiveness ranks #11, ARST defends it at #99; the other way ARST #132 into ULM's #109.
ULM has the advantage in rushing: ULM rushing ranks #103, ARST defends it at #86; the other way ARST #128 into ULM's #67.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ARST. ARST sack rate ranks #67, ULM defends it at #44; the other way ULM #85 into ARST's #12. The pick still lands on ULM because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: ARST has the better last five games by 19.0 points a game (ULM -17.0, ARST +2.0).
Home field is with ULM, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ULM by 4.6 against a market ULM by 1.5: 3.1 points of daylight in ULM's favour. The model's total is 59.0 against a line of 55.5: 3.5 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ULM by 4.6 · market ULM by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor ARST, but the model still picks ULM. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
ARST passing ranks #67, ULM defends it at #103; the other way ULM #77 into ARST's #105.
Rushing game
ULM
Slight advantage
ULM rushing ranks #103, ARST defends it at #86; the other way ARST #128 into ULM's #67.
Third down & red zone
ARST
Slight advantage
ARST third-down conversion ranks #74, ULM defends it at #108; the other way ULM #123 into ARST's #98.
Big plays
ULM
Clear advantage
ULM rush explosiveness ranks #11, ARST defends it at #99; the other way ARST #132 into ULM's #109.
Pass protection & rush
ARST
Slight advantage
ARST sack rate ranks #67, ULM defends it at #44; the other way ULM #85 into ARST's #12.
Ball security
ARST
Slight advantage
ARST turnovers / game ranks #122, ULM defends it at #129; the other way ULM #107 into ARST's #75.
Form (last 5)
ARST
Clear advantage
ULM −17.0 per game over the last five, ARST +2.0.
Market
ULM
Slight advantage
Consensus has ULM by 1.5; the model says ULM by 4.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ULM by 1.5 · model ULM by 4.6
Mkt ULM 1.5
Model ULM 4.6
← ARST by 28tieULM by 28 →
8.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 59.0
Mkt 55.5
Model 59.0
24 pts6096 pts
9.4% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 59.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
