The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%North Texas Mean GreenStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UNT by 14.6market UNT by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
68.6 pointsmarket 63.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has North Texas Mean Green at 80% to win, with the market at UNT by 13.5.
UNT has the advantage in passing: UNT passing ranks #14, USA defends it at #110; the other way USA #114 into UNT's #29.
UNT has the advantage in rushing: UNT rushing ranks #3, USA defends it at #114; the other way USA #48 into UNT's #88.
Form: UNT has the better last five games by 16.6 points a game (UNT +15.4, USA -1.2).
Home field is with UNT, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UNT by 14.6 against a market UNT by 13.5: 1.1 points of daylight in UNT's favour. The model's total is 68.6 against a line of 63.5: 5.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UNT by 14.6 · market UNT by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT passing ranks #14, USA defends it at #110; the other way USA #114 into UNT's #29.
Rushing game
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT rushing ranks #3, USA defends it at #114; the other way USA #48 into UNT's #88.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UNT points / scoring opportunity ranks #4, USA defends it at #126; the other way USA #40 into UNT's #104.
Big plays
=
Even
UNT pass explosiveness ranks #63, USA defends it at #128; the other way USA #81 into UNT's #112.
Pass protection & rush
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT sack rate ranks #25, USA defends it at #133; the other way USA #54 into UNT's #96.
Ball security
=
Even
UNT turnovers / game ranks #84, USA defends it at #71; the other way USA #35 into UNT's #6.
Form (last 5)
UNT
Clear advantage
UNT +15.4 per game over the last five, USA −1.2.
Market
UNT
Clear advantage
Consensus has UNT by 13.5; the model says UNT by 14.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UNT by 13.5 · model UNT by 14.6
Mkt UNT 13.5
Model UNT 14.6
← USA by 28tieUNT by 28 →
2.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 63.5 · model 68.6
Mkt 63.5
Model 68.6
24 pts6096 pts
7.7% of FBS games finish between 63.5 and 68.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
