The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
66%Louisville CardinalsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
LOU by 7.1market LOU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
64.5 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Louisville Cardinals at 66% to win, with the market at LOU by 3.
LOU has the advantage in rushing: LOU rushing ranks #29, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into LOU's #35.
Counterpoint: passing favours PITT. PITT passing ranks #46, LOU defends it at #5; the other way LOU #104 into PITT's #17. The pick still lands on LOU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: PITT has 7 more days since its last game (PITT 14d, LOU 7d).
Form: LOU has the better last five games by 8.0 points a game (PITT -6.0, LOU +2.0).
Home field is with PITT, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it LOU by 7.1 against a market LOU by 3: 4.1 points of daylight in LOU's favour. The model's total is 64.5 against a line of 53.5: 11.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model LOU by 7.1 · market LOU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PITT
Slight advantage
PITT passing ranks #46, LOU defends it at #5; the other way LOU #104 into PITT's #17.
Rushing game
LOU
Slight advantage
LOU rushing ranks #29, PITT defends it at #6; the other way PITT #111 into LOU's #35.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
LOU points / scoring opportunity ranks #76, PITT defends it at #83; the other way PITT #73 into LOU's #43.
Big plays
=
Even
LOU rush explosiveness ranks #29, PITT defends it at #63; the other way PITT #55 into LOU's #74.
Pass protection & rush
LOU
Clear advantage
LOU sack rate ranks #60, PITT defends it at #53; the other way PITT #116 into LOU's #28.
Ball security
LOU
Slight advantage
LOU turnovers / game ranks #78, PITT defends it at #34; the other way PITT #124 into LOU's #38.
Form (last 5)
LOU
Clear advantage
PITT −6.0 per game over the last five, LOU +2.0.
Market
LOU
Slight advantage
Consensus has LOU by 3; the model says LOU by 7.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket LOU by 3 · model LOU by 7.1
Mkt LOU 3
Model LOU 7.1
← LOU by 28tiePITT by 28 →
7.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 64.5
Mkt 53.5
Model 64.5
24 pts6096 pts
23.6% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 64.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
